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253 Russell Senate Office Building
Washington, DC
PANEL 1: TERRORISM, AL QAEDA, AND THE MUSLIM WORLD
WITNESSES: ROHAN GUNARATNA, INSTITUTE FOR DEFENCE AND STRATEGIC STUDIES, SINGAPORE; MAMOUN FANDY, SENIOR FELLOW, UNITED STATES INSTITUTE OF PEACE; MARC SAGEMAN, UNIVERSITY OF PENNSYLVANIA
PANEL 2: STATES AND TERRORISM
WITNESSES: LAURIE MYLROIE, AUTHOR; JUDITH YAPHE, NATIONAL DEFENSE UNIVERSITY; MURHAF JOUEJATI, GEORGE WASHINGTON UNIVERSITY; MARK GASIOROWSKI, LOUISIANA STATE UNIVERSITY
PANEL 3: THE CHALLENGE WITHIN THE MUSLIM WORLD
WITNESSES: RACHEL BRONSON, COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS; GILLES KEPEL, INSTITUTE OF POLITICAL STUDIES, PARIS; STEVEN EMERSON, EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR OF THE INVESTIGATIVE PROJECT; AND DENNIS ROSS, WASHINGTON NEAR EAST POLICY INSTITUTE
POST-HEARING MEDIA ADVISORY
MR. KEAN: Good Morning. As Chairman of the National Commission on Terrorist Attacks upon the United States, I hereby call to order our third public hearing, on the topic of Terrorism, Al Qaeda, and the Muslim World.
Many have compared the attacks of September 11, 2001 to the bombing of Pearl Harbor, sixty years previous. There were, of course, important differences in what transpired on both days. More people died on September 11 than died during the Pearl Harbor attacks. And unlike the case of Pearl Harbor, almost all who died on September 11th were civilians. The planners of the 9-11 attacks targeted not military bases of operation, but the heart of America's financial center and the seat of its government.
There also are many similarities between what happened on both days. In each case, a surprise air attack left thousands of Americans dead. Immediately after both events, the President declared the US to be in a state of war. In each case, our attackers had decided that they were at war with us long before we realized we were at war with them. War for them began with preparations for attack and the assembly of forces to execute their attacks.
Now, as was the case 60 years ago, we confront a global war with all its inherent uncertainties of dimension, duration and loss of life. To defeat and destroy our enemy, we must understand more than the crimes that are already committed. We must understand what drives and motivates it; the source of its power; the resources at its command; its internal strengths and weaknesses; the identity, roles, motives of its allies, enablers and supporters; and its ability to adapt to changed circumstances, especially after we struck back.
In other words, we must know everything we can about al Qaeda if we are to crush it. To help us do precisely that, we have assembled a distinguished group of experts to guide us in our work. Our first panel brings together three distinguished experts to address the origins of al Qaeda, Dr. Rohan Gunaratna is the author of "Inside al Qaeda: Global Network of Terror." He currently is head of terrorism research and associate professor of Institute for Defence and Strategic Studies in Singapore. Our second speaker is Dr. Mamoun Fandy, currently a senior fellow at the United States Institute of Peace. Professor Fandy is an expert on Saudi Islamist movements, and the author of "Saudi Arabia and the Politics of Dissent." Marc Sageman, our third speaker, is a member of the American Psychological Association's Presidential Panel on Terrorism. Dr. Sageman is an expert on the psychological aspects of al Qaeda, recruitment and membership.
All prepared statements will be entered into the record in full, and we would ask each of our witnesses to summarize their statements before we turn to questions from the commissioners. Dr. Gunaratna.
MR. GUNARATNA: Thank you, Chairman Kean, ladies and gentlemen. I am going to begin my testimony by asking the question, Why did al Qaeda attack America's iconic targets on 9/11? I want to answer that question, because I believe that even to this very date many Americans, including policy- and decision-makers of the United States, do not understand why al Qaeda mounted those attacks on America's most outstanding landmarks.
You must turn and examine al Qaeda's founding charter, a charter that was written by Dr. Abdullah Azzam, the founder of al Qaeda, in March 1988, and published in "Al Jihad," the journal of the Arab mujaheddin, a publication that was printed in Peshawar, Pakistan, during that period. According to the charter of al Qaeda, al Qaeda is the vanguard, "the pioneering vanguard of the Islamic movements." That is, as the spearhead of Islam. According to al Qaeda, al Qaeda must mount attacks that will inspire and instigate the other Islamic movements, as well as the wider Muslim community that seeks to support, that al Qaeda wants to build support, in order to continue with their political agenda. If you look at the charter, the charter very clearly states that al Qaeda has a role as the pioneering vanguard. And it is because of that specific role that al Qaeda mounted attacks very selectively on your outstanding landmarks, on your iconic targets, because by charter al Qaeda has a responsibility to h how the way to these other movements, that the United States can always be attacked and destroyed the same way the Soviet Union was reduced from a superpower into Russia, the same way the largest land army in the world, the Soviet army, was defeated in Afghanistan. By the predecessor of al Qaeda, the Maktab al-Khid-mat, or the Afghan Service Bureau, an institution which even had 30 officers inside the United States during the Cold War, when Maktab al-Khidmat fought against the Soviets in Afghanistan. And al Qaeda wanted to show the way to many other Islamic movements, wanted to empower these movements. And that is why al Qaeda built with the assistance of Taliban state-of-the-art terrorist training and operational infrastructure in Afghanistan.
Throughout the 1990s, Afghanistan became a terrorist Disneyland, where more than 40 different terrorist organizations were training and using Afghanistan as an operational base at the time the United States, its allies and its friends intervened in Afghanistan in October of 2001. But for 10 years, the U.S. government, European governments, the international community tolerated Afghanistan from becoming the center of gravity of international training. The center where terrorist organizations planned, prepared and executed operations.
If you look at the previous attacks conducted by al Qaeda, all those attacks were mounted either by members who were trained in Afghanistan and using Afghanistan as a training base. The U.S. government and many other governments have seen 9/11 as an attack that is very different from all its previous attacks. But if you look at the trajectory of al Qaeda operations, there is an incremental escalation in al Qaeda attacks. Look at August 1998, the East Africa bombings. Al Qaeda mounted land suicide attacks against the U.S. Embassies in Kenya and Tanzania, coordinated simultaneous attacks. If you look at October 2000, al Qaeda mounted a maritime suicide attack. If you look at 9/11, al Qaeda mounted an airborne suicide attack. And look at the sophistication of the organization. When al Qaeda attacked those American targets, those land targets in East Africa, the Americans increased the perimeter security of their land targets. Then al Qaeda attacked a maritime target. Then the Americans increased the perimeter security of their land and their maritime targets. But then al Qaeda again deceived the United States and conducted an airborne suicide attack. Al Qaeda could have never mounted those attacks against those targets on 9/11 if it did not use airborne vehicles to attack those targets.
So, and also if you look at the targeting of al Qaeda, there was gradually a larger number of fatalities. There was an increase in sophistication of the organization. The U.S. security and intelligence community, the U.S. think tanks, the U.S. political leaders knew that al Qaeda will strike the United States. If you examine the reports of the Central Intelligence Agency, soon after the East Africa attacks, the U.S. agency warned that it is a question of time that al Qaeda will strike inside the United States.
But there was more than an intelligence failure. There was operational failure. There was a failure to act. You knew that your country will be attacked, but you did not do what was necessary to prevent your country being harmed and humiliated. You knew that the intention of al Qaeda was to kill American people wherever they could be found. But still you did not act, and therefore you paid a very heavy price for it.
In the future, if you want to prevent these attacks, you must continue the path you have adopted after 9/11 in terms of establishing closer security and intelligence cooperation, especially with the Asian and the Middle Eastern Muslim countries, because today the threat has moved beyond al Qaeda. Today we are confronting a large number of Islamist terrorist organizations.
Let us look at the two waves of attacks that we saw in October of last year and May this year. The attacks in May this year were staged on the 12th of May by al Qaeda in Saudi Arabia. On the same day there were attacks in Chechnya. On the 14th of May also attacks in Chechnya by Al-Ansar Mujaheddin, a group that is very close to al Qaeda. For example, the head of the Al-Ansar Mujaheddin in Chechnya, his real name is Mohammed Al Ghamdi. He goes by the name of Abu Waleed. Mohammed Al Ghamdi is the cousin of two of the 9/11 hijackers, Ahmed Alghamdi and Hamza Al Ghamdi. So you can see the coordination of the attacks in that week of May between al Qaeda and the Chechen group.
And then again on the 16th of May in Casablanca, the Casablanca attack was not by al Qaeda but by an associate group of al Qaeda called Assiarat al Moustaqim. And then again the previous day, that is on the 15th of May, again an associate group of al Qaeda, Lashkar-I-Jhanqui, attacked 21 Shell and Caltex stations in Pakistan, coordinated simultaneous attacks within a half an hour -- 21 stations attacked.
So you can see within that week al Qaeda, Assirat al Moustaqim, Al-Ansar Mujaheddin and Lashkar-I-Jhanvui coordinating attacks. So what I would like to say is that the threat has certainly moved beyond al Qaeda.
The last point I want to make is let's look at the attacks in October of last year. The worst terrorist attack after 9/11 occurred in Bali on the 12th of October. That was not by al Qaeda, but an associate group of al Qaeda called Jemaah Islamiya. Another group al Qaeda had armed, trained and financed in Afghanistan during that 10-year period in Afghanistan. And in that same week in October, we saw attacks against the U.S., against the French oil supertanker Limburg off Yemen, and also killing of two U.S. personnel in Kuwait, which was by al Qaeda. So you can see that, in the future, because we have damaged al Qaeda's training infrastructure so significantly in Afghanistan, al Qaeda will increasingly rely on organizations and groups it had trained, armed and financed and ideologized; that is, given the ideological training of the need to wage a universal jihad, not a territorial jihad. And these groups will continue to fight. Al Qaeda will more or less remain in the background, will be more an ideological provider, because it lacks the operational capability, while these other groups will continue to fight with al Qaeda in the background.
So it is a long-term threat. And to fight this kind of threat you need a multi-pronged, multidimensional, multi-agency and a multinational response.
The United States, although it is the most preeminent political, military, economic and diplomatic superpower, you cannot defeat this kind of threat unless you continue to work with your allies and your friends, not only in the military field, but also in the political, ideological, diplomatic and economic fields. Thank you very much.
MR. KEAN: Thank you, sir. Dr. Fandy.
MR. FANDY: Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Ladies and gentlemen, since my colleague talked about, a little more about al Qaeda, I will submit my full testimony to the record, and I am just basically going to fill in some added information on the testimony.
It is very important to first of all reverse the popular understanding about al Qaeda that bin Laden is the main figure in al Qaeda, and focusing on bin Laden puts our efforts in a different trajectory of pursuing al Qaeda. In fact, if Osama bin Laden is the chairman of al Qaeda, the real CEO of the al Qaeda organization is Ayman Zawahiri. And although my colleague just mentioned to you that an airborne attack was in its inception in Peshawar, in fact in 1981 as Ayman Zawahiri said he was contemplating the Sadat association he was discussing with his colleague Aboud Az Zumur to use an airplane and crash it in the stand of President Sadat. Thus using planes to target high-level targets was not conceived in Kandahar, but rather on the Nile shores in Cairo.
To understand Zawahiri is really key understanding of al Qaeda and how it operates. Zawahiri, a man born in Egypt, in the southern part of Cairo called Al Mahdi -- he was born in 1951. He graduated from medical school in 1974 in Cairo, and joined the jihad movement in 1968 after he graduated from high school to form Al Jihad movement. His jihad movement was inspired by the ideas of the founders of the Muslim Brotherhood, mainly the figure of Sayyed Qutb as well as Abu Al' Ala Maududi. Ayman Zawahiri was arrested and kept in prison for three years in Egypt, and left Egypt in 1985 for Saudi Arabia, and spent one year there working at Anifis (ph) clinic as a doctor. And from there he moved to Peshawar.
Some of us are mystified by the name "al Qaeda." The origin of the word "al Qaeda" was actually a guest house that was created by Ayman Zawahiri with Mr. Assam, the Palestinian leader of the jihad in Afghanistan. Ayman Zawahiri and his jihad movement coming from Egypt started an al Qaeda guest house. The other group, which also came from Egypt, the Islamic group, started another house called al Ansar, the supporters of al Qaeda. The main umbrella sponsors in that neighborhood in Peshawar and Pakistan and Afghanistan was represented by three figures, mainly Gul Buddin Hekmatyar who represents also the branch of the Muslim brotherhood, and that takes us back to the ideological trajectory of al Qaeda, as well as Abdel Rebrasu Sayyef, who was also protecting the Islamic group members who were coming again from Egypt via Jeddah, as well as the Taliban and Mullah Omar, who sponsored Bin Laden and the Zawahiri.
But to understand all of this, we cannot just focus on the technical aspect of al Qaeda. We have to look at al Qaeda in its broader context in the Muslim world. Al Qaeda hangs in a web of relations in the Muslim world. Unless it's understood, we miss the whole point of al Qaeda.
Just, not to waste your time, I'm going to draw broader implications and some policy recommendations. Since September 11th on balance I can say we have won the war against the formal structure of al Qaeda, its organization, its military capacity, and its financial networks. This progress has been helped greatly by recent attacks on Riyadh on May 12th. In fact, if al Qaeda shot itself in the foot on September 11th, it shot itself in the head on May 12th in Saudi Arabia, because practically it dried the whole financial support and allows the Saudi state to start an all-out war on these groups, because basically the threat is coming home. Although we seem to understand the formal structure of al Qaeda, we have yet to grasp the broader context and the forces that make such organizations appealing to many people in the Muslim world, from which al Qaeda and its affiliate organization draw their support and new recruits.
One central area that we need to examine, and it's very important, is the area of ideas and look at the media in the Arab and Muslim world. The culture of terrorism is not a sentiment; it's an industry. It is easy enough to identify individuals and governments who finance newspapers, TV stations that promote extremist ideas.
But the media developed even by many moderate leaders of state and media organizations in the Arab and Muslim world, even America's friends have failed to take a clear stand in terms of their relationship with al Qaeda. This is both in terms of how they present their ideas in the media and how they deal with those who disseminate an actively radical branch of Islam. The financial aspects of the media have to be reconsidered and studied more in depth.
In many Arab newspapers and TV programs bin Laden can appear as an hero, and even if al Qaeda is not named, its ideas and its mission is being supported. This speaks in Qatar's al Jazeera and the Lebanese channels and the Usubua in Cairo who recently called for praise, whoever puts the bullet in the heart of any American.
Currently many governments in the Arab and Muslin world are happy with the new division of labor, where the media is for bin Laden and his affiliate organizations, and state power is for the traditional elite. Thus, President Bush's question posed after September 11th, "Are you with us or against us?" has not been answered throughout the Muslim world. We need to have a balance sheet and wait for these answers from every government in the region.
Terrorism in the Muslim world can be drawn as a triangle between three points: states that harbor terrorists, terrorists themselves, and finally the Islamic movements that provide the pool of recruits and intellectual drive and justification for acts of terrorism. The current policy addresses two elements of this triangle: terrorist organizations like al Qaeda and states that harbor terrorists.
It has failed, however, to adequately understand the nature of the third component of the triangle of terror, and it's important. In fact, movements to be ahead of states in the Middle East -- at least the trend points to the primacy of these movements in the Arab world, and we see Hizbollah is much more important than the government of Hariri in Lebanon. We see Hamas is much more important than Arafat, and all of that.
The threat represented by these movements causes a loss of focus in the fight against terrorism for the U.S. and for governments in the Arab and Muslim world. It is clear that the U.S. and its allies are determined to attack terrorism from above by searching out planners and perpetrators of terrorist actions and drying up their financial resources.
But we have to keep in mind that these movements are part and parcel of broad social tendencies. They represent a major obstacle for any long-term strategy to simply attack terrorism from abroad. If the incubators of terrorist organizations are to be done away with, we have to allow and encourage alternative movements to take root. More civicly and democratically-minded ideas have to show that they can have a broader appeal. This requires the cooperation of Muslim and Arab governments, but also attention to broad spectrum of social issues.
Currently governments and societies in the Muslim world are under attack. Governments in particular are alarmed by the magnitude of this threat, but they are not always sure whether they compromise or confront these organizations.
Some governments recently came to understand the magnitude of the threat. In fact, Prince Nayef of Saudi Arabia finally admitted that the Muslim Brotherhood is the mother of all problems in the Arab world. And Saudi Arabia hosted the Muslim Brotherhood during the Arab Cold War that was between Nasser and King Faisal in the '70s. And, in fact, the Muslim Brotherhood, one can argue that they hijacked the total educational Saudi system and turned it around to produce what we know as al Qaeda. The Muslim Brotherhood was the first Islamic organization with global reach, in fact. With its headquarters now next to CENTCOM in Qatar, under Sheikh Qaradawi, practically the Muslim Brotherhood has global reach. It has offices in Germany. It has offices in Virginia next door. It has offices in Yemen and other places.
So unless we really consider the Muslim Brotherhood as part of that larger network, we fail to understand this whole organization. The Muslim Brotherhood is responsible for the civil war in Algeria, responsible for its civil war in Yemen, and responsible for the current situation that we see in Egypt and in Saudi Arabia.
Just practically, one has -- before we make any clear policy about terrorism, we have to understand that it is states that harbor terrorists. It is organizations that conduct these acts. It is movements that support and legitimate these acts and make them look good and look attractive in the eyes of other Muslims. And at the center of all of this is what we call moderate Islamic movements that, in fact, engaged since 1928, at the inception of the Muslim Brotherhood, in secret wars throughout the Arab world.
We have to understand also that the Arab and Muslim world are going through a civil war, and we have to decide what position should we take on this Islamic civil war. This civil war starts from the home, from two brothers and sisters fighting over the headdress and cover, and jihad through the whole society at large. It is very fundamental -- the fundamental issues in the core of the Muslim world. We have to have a clear position on where do we stand there.
Without addressing the third component of terror triangle, the war on terrorism will lose its momentum. The U.S. and the world cannot afford this. A constant stand on the Muslim Brotherhood and all movements that provide support for al Qaeda-like activities is key to developing an effective way of addressing the rise of terrorism in the Muslim world. It does not make sense to target the branch of the Muslim Brotherhood known as Hamas in the Palestinian territories and leave it in Cairo and in Yemen and other places. We have to have a consistent stand on these movements.
To stand as bystander also on the civil war in the Muslim world is to expect the next generation of al Qaeda with nuclear weapons and devastating consequences for the United States of America.
Thank you.
MR. KEAN: Thank you, sir. Dr. Sageman.
MR. SAGEMAN: Mr. Chairman and distinguished members of the national commission, thank you for inviting me today to testify about al Qaeda. I'm not going to read my statement, because I agree with what has been said before, but there are some few differences that I want to highlight, and they have to do with the ideology, the members themselves, the al Qaeda members, and the growth of the organization. Unlike my colleague, I actually studied it from the bottom up instead of the top down. And various patterns actually emerge. But before we can actually understand the patterns, we have to understand why they are doing it, the ideology.
Al Qaeda is part of a global movement which I call the global Salafi jihad. The movement has its root in Egypt; I completely agree. It's a violent Muslim revivalist movement which seeks to return to pure and authentic Islam as practiced by the prophet and his companion. To them, Islam is the answer, and on the recreation of the practices of the devout ancestor, Salaf in Arabic, will bring glory and prominence back to Muslims.
Salafists advocate a strict interpretation of the Quran, and they view with skepticism any later innovation, for it might be a heretical corruption of the original message. And here there's been an evolution in the ideology. I don't really -- cannot go back 20 years and see the ideology the same as it was 20 years ago, but the evolution which came to its ultimate conclusion in 1998 was a process of evolution.
The first is the concept of jihad. And jihad is often a defensive strategy when the lands of Islam are invaded by infidels. And this was the strategy advocated by Abdul Azzam in Afghanistan.
The second strategy, one that's overlooked because we're all focusing on jihad and violent movement, is the peaceful strategy of dawa, the call to Islam. It consists of peacefully preaching the strict and literal imitation of the prophet and his companion as the model of Islamic society. This is a strategy of the Tablighi Jamaat, a born-again Islamist movement operating informally at the grassroots level. It's been very successful, but because it shies away from undue publicity and stays away from politics, it has attracted very little attention, a little bit like al Qaeda before they started bombing, but they're peaceful.
A third strategy is what I would call the Salafi jihad, and that was the one advocated by the Egyptian Salafists. They looked at their own society and they branded it jahiliyya, which is the barbaric state of ignorance that existed before the prophet's revelation, because the modern leaders of Muslim states refuse to impose the Sharia, the strict Quranic law, and the strict Islamic way of life. As such, they accuse their leaders of being apostate, deserving death, and indeed they killed Anwar Sadat. They advocate the violent overthrow of their regime. And the priority here is to actually overthrow your own regime. It's really to fight the near enemy, as they put it, as opposed to the far enemy.
And then, when they all congregated -- and Dr. Fandy is right; a lot of the Egyptians went to Afghanistan -- and when they met there, they really developed this global perspective, and that's the fourth strategy, the global Salafi jihad. It was really first proclaimed by Osama bin Laden in his 1996 fatwa, and it reverses the previous strategy.
Now the priority is the far enemy, i.e. the United States, as opposed to the near enemy. And the idea is that without the far enemy, the United States, supporting the local governments, their local governments would not be able to survive.
And their strategy is a need to inflict maximum casualties against the opponent, for this is the language understood by the West, and concentrate on the method of martyrdom operations as the most efficient in terms of damages and least costly to the jihad. Al Qaeda is only one of those groups.
I'm going to skip over the history, because I think that's been covered pretty well. And what I'd like to do now is to give you a composite of about 150 members of that jihad that I've collected and give you a picture of who those people are.
They're very heterogeneous. There's three large patterns that emerge. About 60 percent came from what I called core Arab countries, mostly Saudi Arabia and Egypt. Thirty percent came from Maghreb Arab countries, and they're fairly important, especially in Western Europe, or even here. Ahmed Ressam is part of that. And 10 percent came from Indonesia.
In terms of socioeconomic status, two-thirds came from solid upper middle-class backgrounds. Most of the rest came from what's called the excluded Maghreb immigrants, second generation in France, as well as western Christian converts. They all came from caring, in tact families. The Indonesians were uniformly religious as children. About 60 percent of the core Arab children were ,and almost none of the Maghreb Arab children were.
As a group, they were relatively well-educated, with over 60 percent attending colleges. Only the Indonesian group was exclusively educated in religious schools, and I'll talk about that a little bit later. Most of them had a good occupation, and only a quarter were considered unskilled, with few prospects before them. Three-quarters were married, and the majority had children.
I detected no mental illness in this group or any common psychological predisposition for terror. The average age for joining was about 26 years. The Indonesians joined at a later age; the core Arabs at a younger age. Three-fourths of the group decided to join when they were expatriates. That means they were living in a country where they did not grow up.
An additional 10 percent were second generation who felt a strong pull to the country of their parents. So, about 85 percent were literally cut off from the culture and social origins. And I'm going to develop that a little bit more. The majority of the rest were Saudis, on whom we know very little, so I can't really tell you much about that.
Compounding the isolations of a new country was the fact that they were underemployed. By the time they joined the jihad, there was a dramatic shift in devotion to their faith. So the only significant finding here is that the terrorists felt isolated, lonely, emotionally alienated. Otherwise they were a very diverse group.
How did they join the jihad? They did it through pre-existing social bonds, with people who were already terrorists or they decided all together to join the jihad as a group. Affiliation with the jihad was through friendship, kinship, discipleship and worship. Sixty-five percent of the cases had pre-existing friendship bonds with people that were already in the jihad.
The typical scenario was a homesick young man to drift toward familiar settings such as mosques to find companionship and to alleviate their loneliness. Their clusters of friends formed spontaneously, and they often moved in together in apartments.
Another 15 percent joined through relatives already in the jihad. The Indonesians were all disciples of the same teacher. They first studied in one of two religious boarding schools and joined the Jemaah Islamiayya, which had been founded by their teacher.
The last 10 percent gave religious beliefs as the only reason they joined the jihad. But whatever source of their social bonds, these groups underwent a period of intense social interaction in their apartments mostly and developed strong mutual intimacy which relieved their previous distress.
As they became closer, they progressively adopted the belief and faith of their friends, their most extreme friends. They knew Salafi faith distanced them further from their childhood friends and families, leading to increased isolation and loyalty to the group, which in turn intensified their faith. They were ready to join the jihad.
The critical factor -- and this is a key issue -- was the existence of a human link to the jihad who could actually arrange training in Afghanistan. This was usually a peripheral acquaintance and a chance encounter, and a formal invitation and acceptance to join the jihad was actually done in Afghanistan after senior members were able to evaluate them.
In terms of growth, the common element detected in all of them was, of course, their link to the jihad itself. So if we trace the links, we can actually see how they grow. Unlike the military organization, the global jihad was structured around popular human hubs surrounded by more isolated human nodes. From the historical data, it seems that the jihad grew haphazardly around these hubs.
Surprisingly, there is no evidence of a comprehensive top-down recruitment program in the global jihad. The pressure comes from the bottom up, prospective young men eager to join the movement. I have detected no dedicated recruiter in my search, and I've looked for it. Nor is there any evidence of any recruitment committee with a full staff and its own budget in al Qaeda headquarters, nor any evidence of aggressive publicity campaigns to increase membership.
This absence of privileges kept its profile low enough, despite its size, that it avoided detection by us in this country. On the other hand, because of its haphazard growth, it left it vulnerable to the preference of the people who volunteered for it, so that left huge gaps in it.
Specifically, it's without a pool of members able to operate clandestinely in the U.S. and thus limits its ability to wage war on U.S. soil. This is the number one priority for al Qaeda or any of those organizations in the jihad.
The growth of jihad depends on its ability to gain new members. Anger at U.S. policy will increase the pool of potential candidates, but they still need to establish the crucial link with the jihad to become part of it. The degree of tolerance of the jihad also affects its rate of growth.
In a tolerant country, like most western democratic countries, or Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Malaysia and Tunisia, and Salafi mosques prior to 9/11, potential members could listen to people who'd boast of their connection to the jihad. "I was in Afghanistan. I trained. I'm a hero." And so people approached them and said, "Gee, we'd like to do the same. Can you connect us?" After 9/11, this has changed dramatically. People who could have provided a potential link now become reluctant to reveal their affiliation. The result of this growth pattern is a network that's very robust, but it's also very vulnerable to targeted attacks, namely against those what I call social hubs. If the hubs are destroyed, the system breaks down into isolated nodes. The jihad will be incapable of mounting sophisticated large-scale operation like the 9/11 attacks and be reduced to small attacks by singleton. These hubs are vulnerable because most communication goes through them. By following communication back to them, good police work would be able to identify and arrest these human hubs. This strategy has already shown considerable success.
In terms of policy recommendations, there are several. The greatest priority right now is extensive penetration of these movements. The best bet for penetration lies in recruitment from the pool of those who went through the training but decided not to join the jihad. That pool right now is being prosecuted for providing material support and resources to the jihad.
Before prosecuting them, I would suggest that all efforts should be made to try to turn them around and have them go back and join the jihad to penetrate the jihad. However, at present it's unlikely because of the fact that they fear prosecution. Perhaps a program of immunity in exchange for a good-faith effort to help fight the jihad may convince them to actually --
MR. KEAN: If you can start to wind up.
MR. SAGEMAN: I'm sorry?
MR. KEAN: To wind up.
MR. SAGEMAN: Yes, I'm almost done.
MR. KEAN: Thank you.
MR. SAGEMAN: It also requires the active support of American Muslim community. And I'm concerned here about some accounts of strong-arm governmental tactics antagonizing Muslim community in this country and elsewhere. We really have to repair those bonds.
Also I think that we need to elicit the help of peaceful movements, revivalist movements, such as Tablighi Jamaat, who would like to get rid of all the people who have penetrated them and are violent, just like we allied ourselves with socialists in Western Europe to fight the communists. Here, I think, it's the same strategy.
And I think that, as Dr. Fandy mentioned, we really need to clamp down on the anti-western and anti-American hate speech. And here I would suggest the establishment of an international anti-defamation league to monitor such speech and work with the press, religious organizations, governments and respective justice systems to condemn and control it. And there is some indication that now the Saudis, after the May 12th bombings, are starting to do that. The last item is the war in Iraq. This is -- now that we're there, it's going to become a litmus test of our policy in all the Middle East. If we succeed, great. It's going to be a model for other people to emulate. If we fail, it's going to increase our problems, mainly the pool of people going to fight us.
So despite our major victories, we have not yet defeated this movement. If we relax our vigilance, its network will spontaneously reconstitute. If we continue our fight based on understanding of its network and dynamics and with good police work and intelligence work, combined with more global measures, and especially international assistance, we should be able to conclusively eliminate it.
Thank you.
MR. KEAN: Thank you very much. Questions from the panel? Senator Gorton.
MR. GORTON: Last week there was an election in Kuwait. The franchise was limited to maybe one-third of the male residents of the country. And, of course, women were not allowed to vote. And the radicals won overwhelmingly. Now, it would be difficult to name a nation anywhere in the world, especially a Muslim nation, in which the influence of the United States has been more benign than it has been in Kuwait. It owes its existence to the United States.
Does this not indicate -- I ask all of you this, but I'm going to quote particularly in two places that Dr. Gunaratna says that radical Muslims are only a minuscule percentage of all Muslims. Now, I think most of your written statement, Doctor, is contrary to that, that the support, at least passive support, is much broader. If we have not succeeded in Kuwait in creating a society which is reasonably liberal, how in the world do we, or does any western country that is not Muslim, tell Muslims what true Islam is?
I'd like any of you to comment on that.
MR. FANDY: Just let me -- just because I was recently in Kuwait and I followed the elections and all of that, probably I can say something about it. Sir, one of the main lessons from the Kuwaiti elections is that, one, the Muslim Brotherhood lost and gained only two seats. And some Salafi radicals, the S-1, the Jihadist groups, certainly won seats, especially Walid al-Tabatabai and others, who are very much anti-U.S.
But it is very important to understand in this context that Kuwait, compared to the neighborhood -- at least women in Kuwait, I saw them driving their cars and running around. Yes, they did not get the suffrage. The emir of Kuwait put out a request for the parliament last time, and again the Islamist radical forces clamped down on this and women could not get the vote. But it is very important throughout the Middle East -- not Kuwait alone. One thing we are not getting thus far, whether it is in Iraq or Egypt or Saudi Arabia or Kuwait, is that we need to hear gratitude for what we do in that part of the world. In fact, governments are unable to come forth and say, "We are friends of the United States."
And I think our problems throughout the Middle East is really about an approach that has developed over the years that somehow we tolerate Arab leaders telling us something in private rooms, and letting them deal with their public the way they want to. It is very important for friends of the United States to stand by the United States and speak out, that indeed Kuwait was liberated by the United States. None of the Muslim or the Arab world, if it were left to the devices of the Muslim or the Arab world, Kuwait would have been occupied until this day. It is very important that the governments come out and be grateful, even in Iraq it is very important that the Iraqi people come out and be grateful.
The question for Kuwait -- I like the idea that Kuwait is experimenting with democracy, whether it includes radicals or non-radicals. It is very important to bring these people in in a dialogue. The one problem in Kuwait which remains is the international element of the Muslim Brotherhood represented by a group named al-Islah, that basically has tremendous finances and capable to recruit. But Kuwait was good enough to refuse the spokesperson of al Qaeda to be handed from Kuwait to Iran recently. So it is very important to really push the government of Kuwait into really being forthcoming on the question of Islamists, and the question also of finances. But we have to realize that also they are limited in their means. We have to technically assess these things in tracing the finances that go to al Qaeda and other organizations.
But I wouldn't be very worried when some members, even if they are extremist in their views, are part of the parliament. I would be terribly worried about --
MR. GORTON: Well, they are a substantial majority of the parliament now, are they not?
MR. FANDY: I don't think they will affect -- they are right now probably 10 members of parliament, including -- still the government has the majority thus far. It's very important that we tell the government of Kuwait very clearly that gratitude is the essence of friendship. And if you talk publicly and increase the talk publicly about we are friends of the United States, and people come out and speak about their gratitude, then the media can affect everybody. But the Islamists and the radicals are practically taking advantage of an atmosphere where everybody is quiet about the friendship of the United States. So everybody is on the run, because leaders are unable to come out and say, "We are friends of the United States, and here are the reasons why, and here are the reasons why these guys are wrong." Right now nobody is telling them that they are wrong, whether it is in Saudi Arabia or Egypt or everywhere else.
MR. GORTON: That -- okay, go ahead.
MR. GUNARATNA: Sir, I want to make two points. One is I would still say that in the Muslim world it is minuscule of the Muslims that actively support terrorism. There may be a larger percentage that supports the various coffers that have been spearheaded by these organizations, but in terms of active support, the people who give money, the people who carry the explosive device and place it, it is still minuscule. If you look at worldwide support for violent organizations, whether it is in Northern Ireland in terms of support for the IRA, we have seen a maximum of 15 percent of the public will support organizations that engage in terrorism -- maximum 15 percent -- with one exception; that is, the conflict between the Palestinians and the Israelis. About 60 percent of the Palestinians support suicide terrorism. That is because there is a very high percentage of the Palestinians who have been politicized and radicalized and mobilized by groups like Hamas, Palestine Islamic Jihad and Al Aqsa Martyrs Brigade.
But other than that conflict, I would say that most other conflicts we will find less than 20 percent of any population in any Muslim country will actively support terrorism. This may change with time. This may change, especially after 9/11, especially after U.S. intervention in Iraq. But prior to that, we have not seen evidence of greater support -- not sympathy, but support for terrorist organizations.
MR. SAGEMAN: May I make a comment? Although I defer to my esteemed colleagues, I think that the fear is probably greater than the reality here in Kuwait. What needs to be done is discrediting those extreme movements that are about to capture a lot of countries in the Muslim world. At this point I don't think we have a stronger popular support in the Middle East than Iran. And why? I think because the mullahs have been discredited in Iran. Their policy -- see, it's a promise that everything will become a like a paradise that is really attractive to all the population. They are faced with a repressive regime, they are faced with corrupt governments, and so they try something new, a little bit like Algeria tried to do. And once those people will be in power, you will see that there is absolutely no substance behind their policies.
Now, the key here is not to allow them to gather like in Iran all the levels of power to prevent other people from running a fair election, even if they do like Iran that they have no power whatsoever. So this really the one position that we have to insist that, fine, let fundamentalists take over the government, and after five years you will see the whole population turn around.
MR. GORTON: But isn't the fundamental problem of antipathy, whether highly radicalized and involving terrorism or passive distaste of the West a result of the three- to five-hundred-year reversal of roles in the world? And is there any possibility that there can be a true prosperity in the Middle East or the Muslim world, as long as 50 percent of the population can't effectively participate, the whole female part of the population? And how does that change, given the fundamental basis of Islam itself?
MR. SAGEMAN: Well, again, if you look at Iran where the women vote, this has changed quite a bit. It seems that the support really comes from the base and not really from the top government. Actually, if you eliminate the top 2,000 in the government you will have a very pro-American country. Remember, this is a country that had spontaneous demonstration in support of the United States right after 9/11 in the whole Middle East.
What happened is that after a period of decolonization a lot of Middle Eastern countries chose the secular socialist route, and this is what has been discredited, and this really led to the popularity of fundamentalist movements. They have to kind of go through a process of learning; otherwise, still the promise will be there and unless you can give in and give them what they want for a while and realize there is nothing there, they are not going to stop being attracted to it.
MR. GORTON: Dr. Fandy?
MR. FANDY: I just wanted to -- I think it is very important what is said here. The issue of women is very central for any reform. However, I would like you to keep in mind that really what attracted an immigrant like myself to the United States of America is the slogan of freedom. And our message should not be jumbled up. As we talk to the Muslim world, we have to be very clear that we are about freedom and democracy, whether that democracy produces radical or non-radical. Even if they were against us, as we know that there are institutions and mechanisms that allow them in, as well as allow them out. We have to strengthen institutions inside the Muslim world that provide mechanisms for people to come into the public arena and debate on the basis of one-man/one-vote, and make sure also that these governments have the mechanisms to lift them out, as well when they are voted out. Thus far these institutions do not exist. You might have one-man, one-vote, one-time when the Islamists take over. If you have these safeguards that indeed there is no chance for one-man, one-vote, one-time in the case of maybe Iraq in the future or somewhere else, we need to strengthen the mechanisms to allow these people to leave.
Now, our message, I think would be absolutely dangerous for the United States of America to say that we are for selective democracy. We are a democracy for this and for somebody when we are against it. We are for democracy across the board. We are for participation across the board. Otherwise, I think what we are suffering from in the Muslim world, sir, right now is that our message is jumbled up. Nobody in the Muslim world knows what it is our message on Iraq, what is our message on Islam. Do we hate all Islam or half of it, or radical only? I mean, we have not put out a strategically positioned message to the Muslim world telling them who we are and what we are all about.
Now, we can differ on tactical issues, specifically case-by-case basis like Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Oman, other things. But the overarching message I think, with all due respect, ought to be uniform on the question of freedom and democracy. And that's what makes the United States of America attractive to the rest of the world. As we get jumbled up, we lose the thrust that made this country great.
MR. GORTON: Yes?
MR. GUNARATNA: Sir, I believe that the situation can be reversed, that is to identify what went wrong. America has been very generous to the countries in the Middle East and in Asian countries, especially the Muslim countries. But there is no gratitude. It is because American assistance and the relationship that America has had with Middle East and Asia has been largely government-to-government. It is very important to invest more resources in public diplomacy, to educate the public formally and informally in those countries. And I think that there must be a counter to al Jazeera. There must be more work done to empower the non-governmental organizations in those countries. And I think that dealing with government-to-government has not created this good will.
One example is the U.S. government has been telling the Indonesian government prior to the attack in Bali, October 2002, that there is a terrorist network in Indonesia, but the U.S. government did not tell the Indonesian people. So, when Bali happened, the first reaction of the Indonesian people, or at least a segment of the people, was "our military has done it." The people were not aware. So, I think it is very important to invest in shaping the public opinion of the people in those countries, in public diplomacy.
MR. KEAN: Ms. Gorelick.
MS. GORELICK: It's been very, very interesting. I'd like to switch gears a little bit. The purpose of this hearing is really two-fold. One is to understand the enemy so that we are assured that we're taking all possible steps to meet that enemy. But the other is to determine why we didn't see and appreciate the threat.
And so I would like to start with you, Dr. Gunaratna, and go back to 1988. You make a very powerful point in your writing, and you've alluded to it this morning, that al Qaeda was essentially borne out of an emboldened Islamic movement, emboldened by the fact that it help take down the Soviet Union by defeating it in Afghanistan, which, of course, we as a nation supported. We armed them. We supported them. We helped create this very potent force. And as you point out, in 1988, this movement was potent, with no enemy remaining.
What did we think at the time these people and this movement was going to do? And what were the flaws, if any, in our foreign policy and in our intelligence, that led this group to turn its sights on us and our allies with seeming impunity? And also, I'd like to hear from you, Professor Fandy, on that.
MR. GUNARATNA: Madam, the al Qaeda was created before the Soviet troops left Afghanistan. The Soviet troops left Afghanistan in February 1989. Al Qaeda was created in March 1988. But certainly, al Qaeda became a very powerful organization because al Qaeda used the infrastructure it had built during the -- at the height of the Cold War to fight the Soviet army. So, certainly al Qaeda made use of the resources that came to Pakistan and Afghanistan for that purpose. America did the right thing by supporting the Mujaheddin to fight the Soviet army, but, however, the failure of the international community, including the United States, was after the Soviets retreated, withdrew from Afghanistan. The West turned a blind eye to Pakistan and Afghanistan. Pakistan, a front-line state in the war against the Soviets, was abandoned. The U.S. government threatened Pakistan, neglected Pakistan, neglected Afghanistan. And there were some Americans who told me at that time, "Well, no, let them fight among each other. It really doesn't matter to us, you see."
MS. GORELICK: If I might interrupt, as a student of that history, you can perhaps shed some light on what it was that we in the United States thought they would be doing. That is, is it your view that our view was they would simply fight among themselves and be of no threat to anyone else?
MR. GUNARATNA: Madam, the U.S. intelligence community had a very poor understanding of those movements. Al Qaeda was created in March '88, but if you look at, examine the CIA reports, until August 1998, none of the CIA reports refers to Osama Bin Laden's organization as al Qaeda. It is referring to Osama Bin Laden's organization as what? As the Islamic army, or as the UBL network. So, that means for 10 years this organization existed. And I think you invest something like $30 billion on your intelligence for a year, right? But they did not know even the accurate name of Osama's organization that had declared war on you in 1996.
So, I think that you need to invest more in human source penetration. You need to divert some of your resources that you are investing in your technical collection into agent handling operations.
MS. GORELICK: Professor Fandy. Thank you.
MR. FANDY: I don't think we have to take all the blame on this. On al Qaeda, I think, is like any organization, is really part of these transnational movements. Throughout that part of the world we have a great deal of -- a number of failed states throughout. And we are also were suckered in the process by other states in the neighborhood that gave us their radicals and say "They will fight your jihad in Afghanistan." In fact, they were emptying out their societies of this threat, and we carried that baby throughout. And then we left them high and dry in Afghanistan. We had no plans for what to do in Afghanistan and how to deal with al Qaeda.
Al Qaeda, if you look at the makeup of al Qaeda, who are the foot soldiers of al Qaeda? These are people who came from the GIA in Algeria, came from the jihad in Egypt, came from supporters of Bin Laden in Saudi Arabia, in Yemen, in also Europe. I mean, we have failed also to map what we -- mapped the Muslim world in Europe, if you will, we have no understanding of how to map the Muslim world in Europe into the societies of Europe, and where do they fit, and all of that. It's a very complex problem that requires a lot resources. It requires cooperation from local governments. I think we could have done well had we subcontracted, if you will, how to fight al Qaeda to local regimes if they were willing, because they know more and they understand them more. But somehow we failed to do so. I think it's very important to realize that we allowed offices here that are extremely dangerous in the United States, like Maktab al Khidmat in New York, or the Office of Jihad in New York and in other places. So, the blowback effect was expected, given our understanding that after the defeat of the Soviet Union, we had no understanding of the mop up operation. I mean, we are always -- and I think our pattern is clear even in Iraq -- we win wars, but we don't know how to win peace. And I think that's really a broader issue. We have to understand how to win the peace. I think we did it in Europe, but we failed afterwards. I mean, after World War II, I think if it weren't for this whole plan of restructuring Europe, we created a Europe that's sustainable. But after that, I think we did not pay attention to this, and probably even the Iraq example can be very dangerous unless we come up with the strategy of winning the peace.
MS. GORELICK: Thank you.
MR. SAGEMAN: May I address this issue. I turns out that of all three of us, I was the one who was over there at the time. I was the liaison officer with the Mujaheddin until I left Islamabad. And my view of the history of al Qaeda is actually quite different since I was there.
I must say that it didn't even come across our screen. They were an insignificant part of our fight against the Soviets. They were really a hindrance, as a matter of fact. Whenever I ever heard about the Arab Afghans, it was really in very derogatory terms by the Afghans themselves. They really were not part of that war. Now, they hijacked the notion that they were the ones who actually kicked the Soviets out of Afghanistan and, you know, they had good PR in that sense. But I don't really see that.
Now, if you can't have a linear view of history, as Dr. Gunaratna has, then you really discount the notion that the Gulf I happened. And I think al Qaeda is really more a result of Gulf I and having our troops in Saudi Arabia and a progressive -- progression in ideology as I try to really kind of outline in my statement -- the designation of the United States as the priority really did not come until the mid- 1990s. I mean, you cannot find that in 1988. I would completely disagree with that.
MS. GORELICK: That's a very interesting perspective, and I apologize for forgetting that part of your very interesting non-linear career. There really are not too many liaisons to the Mujaheddin who are also practicing psychiatrists -- (laughter) -- and we are very happy to have that peculiar combination before us today.
So, let me actually follow-up, if I might, because this is quite interesting. What you are saying is that while the infrastructure was in place so that at the time of, let's say a provocation arising out of our very strong presence in the Gulf after the Gulf War and particularly in Saudi Arabia, there really wasn't a decided threat to us between the fall of the Soviet Union and the victory, if you will, of the Mujaheddin and others in Afghanistan and the period in the mid-1990s.
But let me ask you then to put your liaison hat back on. Did we have the resources in place to identify the fact that in the 1990s, the mid-1990s, that threat had turned on us?
MR. SAGEMAN: I can only talk until I left the government in 1991, and at that point, we did not. As I said, those Afghan Arabs did not come on our screen. And having been involved, I kind of followed that situation until I left in '91. We did not know then. We had no penetration of them, to my knowledge. They just were not relevant at that time. They became afterwards, during the exile into Sudan, when we realized that there was a group there, and I think probably was the first time that they came on our screen. But this is speculation. I was already out of the government. I was out of the loop.
MS. GORELICK: Well thank you very much. I have a couple of other questions, if I might.
I'd like to return, Dr. Fandy, to the point -- Professor Fandy -- to the point that you made about whether we are really enforcing, if you will, the president's view that we need to know who is with us and who is against us. You make the point that the financial aspects of the media in the Middle East really ought to be studied by us and -- or by someone -- to determine what the support is for this massive propaganda machine focused on us. And this may not be a fair question to you, but here it is: Who do you say in the Middle East is with us, and who is against us?
MR. FANDY: I think to be absolutely honest, everybody in the Middle East is ambivalent about us and about themselves, that there is -- there is political risks that's calculated locally throughout the neighborhood that if they come out full swinging with the United States that probably they might lose their power. I mean, which is really sometimes not true. These are -- everybody talks about the Middle East as the unstable area in the world. I can tell you, this is the most stable area in the world if people can rule for 18 and 20 and 30 years, that's very stable. We haven't seen overthrowing of governments throughout. This is a very stable region and people can afford to be with us. I think many countries are with us, but also secretly with us. I think Egypt helped us a great deal on intelligence after September 11th, but also Egypt failed to come full force and be straightforward about their total support for us.
MS. GORELICK: So, on the -- if you were making a list that included public support and support in winning and helping to win the minds and hearts of the people, or at least presenting a fair presentation of the facts, you would find no one fully with us. Is that correct?
MR. FANDY: Well, I think no one is fully with us. Not only that, but there's something extra that needs to be carefully studied. I think there's something that can be called sort of "Saddam settlements in the Arab media" that need to be dismantled, and also Muslim brotherhood settlements within the Arab media that need to be dismantled. It is -- it is disheartening, if you study media organizations, that you find people who fought in Afghanistan now wearing three-piece suits and doing a talk show. This is -- this is preposterous. And I think we have -- we have the knowledge and we know who is who amongst this group. We know who is supporting what newspaper, who is financing it.
The problem is that sometimes we think that Arab media is very much like Western media. These are legitimate organizations somehow for freedom of expression. If you study certain newspapers that were created -- the number of newspapers created by Saddam Hussein throughout the Arab world and by the Iraqi intelligence services, from London, to Cairo, to Paris, to other places, these are front organizations. We shouldn't have any misgivings to make clear that al Qaeda, like any other organization, has a media wing to it. It has public affairs officers. And these officers exist and are implanted in all Arab media, in the same way that they had officers within Arab armies and governments and that sort that supported them.
MS. GORELICK: So, if I might summarize, your advice to us is not to superimpose our western notions of what the press is and what its ethics and values are on what we see in the Middle East and look at the funding and the actual activities of these organizations.
MR. FANDY: Who is who, and who is doing what? I mean, this is very important.
MS. GORELICK: I appreciate that. I have one final question. It was interesting to me that Dr. Gunaratna, in response to Senator Gorton's question, made a point of saying that the percentage of truly hostile individuals in the Muslim world is minuscule, even if support for their larger goals might be broader than that minuscule group.
So I'd like to address this question to Dr. Sageman, because I don't have a lot of experience in foreign terrorism, but I have a lot of experience in domestic terrorism. And the analogy is far from perfect, but before the Oklahoma City bombing, there was a growing domestic terrorist threat in the United States. It was a proliferation of people who were overtly hostile and who were militant and who said that they wanted to do violence within this country.
And what the government did in response was two-fold. One was to raise the level of opprobrium in society for that sort of activity. We and the culture made it clear that violence was just not an appropriate tactic. And, two, we infiltrated everybody we could possibly infiltrate. And the two tactics together, particularly after Oklahoma City, were, I think, quite successful.
My question to you is two-fold. One, should we just be worried about the minuscule group of actively hostile potential martyrs? Or do we need to be as worried about the societal support that I think Slade Gorton was getting at? And two, from your interviews and your sort of -- the texture you've drawn from the interviews you've done, what are the two or three best tactics we can use to diminish the potency of the violent groups?
MR. SAGEMAN: Well, if I knew that, the government would probably hire me. (Laughter).
MS. GORELICK: Well, we're considering that.
MR. SAGEMAN: Thank you. It's a very difficult two-pronged question. The first one is, when you have terrorism on your own soil, it hurts more. So the Saudis really were not concerned about 9/11. As a matter of fact, they dismissed it. "It's not us." But when Riyadh happened, it became real to them. So I'm not really sure that the domestic analogy can really be transplanted to the foreign one.
The second, we have to penetrate them, absolutely, just like we did here. But the key is really to prevent, even though the number of people are minuscule -- there's 1.3 billion Muslims; there may be at most 2,000 people who are willing to commit violence, which is an infinitesimal part of it -- there is still a fairly large pool of people who want to graduate to that level. And what's missing is that human link.
And what we're doing now is really the appropriate way of doing it, which is we don't really allow them to advertise freely in either Salafi mosques or in Saudi Arabia or anywhere else that "Gee, I'm part of the jihad; if you guys want to sign up, just come and see me afterwards and I'll make the arrangements." So by eliminating that link, we just keep a potential pool a potential pool and not the reality of terrorism.
MS. GORELICK: Thank you.
MR. GUNARATNA: Madam, could I?
MS. GORELICK: Certainly.
MR. GUNARATNA: No terrorist group can continue, can sustain, without flow of support. These organizations are continuing to grow like companies. They're growing because there is support. And that is why I said, during my presentation, that public diplomacy is very important. You have to invest in the public to create a societal norm and ethic against terrorism and to say that these organizations are not Koranic organizations, that they're heretical organizations, that they are misinterpreting and misrepresenting Islam, that they're presenting a corrupt version of Islam.
It is important to invest resources in that direction, because if you disrupt public support for these movements, these movements will die. They will perish. They will be very small in number and they will not be able to conduct this type of high-impact operations. I also want to go to the point that you raised with Professor Fandy about are they with the United States. If you look at since 9/11, there have been arrests of 3,100 al Qaeda members and al Qaeda supporters, key supporters, in 102 countries of the world.
These Muslim regimes in the Middle East and in Asia are perceiving the same threat that you are perceiving from these organizations, because if you examine their trajectory, initially they want to topple those states and create Islamic states.
Osama bin Laden said that it was too costly for them to conduct terrorist operations in the Middle East against those corrupt Muslim rulers and those false Muslim rulers and those corrupt Muslim governments and said that they must change their strategy.
Their changing their strategy was they said they must attack the head of the poisonous snake, the United States, that was protecting, shielding those false Muslim rulers and those corrupt Muslim governments. That is why they decided to strike the head of the poisonous snake, the United States.
You see, so in terms of the changing al Qaeda strategy of near targeting to distant targets and now returning back to the near targets, you see, it has generated equal amount of fear in those countries that they are being threatened by these groups.
So I think the United States have received measure of cooperation. Today the most important al Qaeda members, they are not detaining in Guantanamo Bay. They've been detained in secret U.S. facilities in those Middle Eastern and Asian countries, Muslim countries.
MS. GORELICK: Well, if I can just summarize so that I can pass the baton to my colleague here, your views, while not wholly consistent, are one that we are getting good cooperation, if quiet cooperation, from many countries because it is in their own self- interest to do so, particularly since the attacks in Riyadh.
But, number two, we are failing to get that support in the whole area of public diplomacy, represented by the media and otherwise, which is permitting, A, the flow of funds, and B, a degree of public acceptance of the kind of violence that has to be brought to an end. And I think that those are very strong take-aways for us today, and I thank you for your very helpful answers to my questions.
MR. KEAN: Thank you. Congressman Roemer.
MR. ROEMER: Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Mr. Chairman, I'd just like to, for 15 seconds, indulge our committee for just a comment to you and our distinguished vice chairman. Yesterday, as a chair and vice chair, as a Republican and as a Democrat, you went forward in a public press conference, and in your usual artful and diplomatic way, you both went forward with velvet gloves on and insisted that this commission get more cooperation from some of the agencies that have been dealing with us over the last several months and respond more forcefully to our aggressive search for facts and for substance and for information.
I strongly applaud that bipartisan effort. It shows the consistency and the force of, I think, our commission on this point. I might have used some boxing gloves rather than the velvet gloves that you used. But with particular reference to the Department of Defense and to the CIA and FBI and main Justice, unless we start getting more of not just the document flow but important, substantive documents, it's going to be very difficult for us to forcefully move forward, and not just have important academics appear before us, but have people like Dr. Berger, who might have been in a position to know why we might have been slow in the 1990s to identify al Qaeda; Dr. Rice, currently in the Bush administration, to answer some of these questions about how the Bush administration responded. That's very important for this commission, and I hope we can get the White House's cooperation to forcefully move these facts forward.
Dr. Gunaratna, you studied in my hometown of South Bend, Indiana, at the University of Notre Dame. You know how direct we can be in the Midwest. Let me start with a question with you, and then I want to get to one question for all three panelists.
Mohammad Jamal Khalifa is an individual who is thought by some analysts and intelligence experts to have a direct link to al Qaeda. He's a Saudi. He is someone who was mentioned in a January 21st, 2003 Christian Science Monitor article.
In that article, you're quoted -- let me read your quote. Quote: "Had the U.S. followed the Khalifa case in the Philippines, I believe September 11th could have been averted," unquote. Extremely powerful words saying this one case was so important with an individual connected to all this that if the U.S. had done their job, things might have turned out differently.
First of all, do you stick by that statement, that quote? Secondly, if you do, factually, in detail and with substance, why is that true?
MR. GUNARATNA: Sir, Mohammad Jamal Khalifa is the brother-in-law of Osama bin Laden. He arrived in the Philippines in 1988 and he became the first director, the founding director, of the International Islamic Relief Organization of Saudi Arabia. He used the IIRO to funnel al Qaeda funds to the Abu Sayyaf group and the Moral Islamic Liberation Front. He also hosted Khalid Shaikh Mohammad, the brother- in-law of Ramzi Mohammad Yousef, the first World Trade Center bomber.
And what we have seen is that the old Plan Bojinka, the plan that al Qaeda had in 1994 to destroy 12 U.S. airliners over the Pacific simultaneously, that operation was the genesis of 9/11 operation. If you read the interrogation of Khalid Shaikh Mohammad, who is now in U.S. custody, he has very clearly stated how 9/11 was planned, that it originated from old Plan Bojinka, that plan.
MR. ROEMER: Have you had access to those interviews and that information on Khalid Shaikh Mohammad?
MR. GUNARATNA: Yes, sir. In fact, in that debriefing, he says very clearly that he put a bolt, a metal bolt, in his shoe and he mounted -- to test the security of the airports in the Far East. He traveled through to those airports -- Seoul, Hong Kong, various other airports. So you can see that in the planning of 9/11, the original seeds was out of Philippines. And, in fact, they did the first dry run for old Plan Bojinka, where Ramzi Mohammad Yousef, in fact, flew from Manila to Sibu on a Philippine airline plane and he placed a nitroglycerine device under his seat. He got off the plane in Sibu and there was an explosion when the plane was coming close to Japan, and it killed one Japanese, injured seven or eight others, made a hole in the fuselage. The plane was going to Narita Airport in Tokyo, but the skilled pilot landed in the Naha Airport in Okinawa.
And you can see that they were very serious. And the Americans were quite happy with the outcome of old Plan Bojinka because they arrested Ramzi Hamad (ph) Yousef in Pakistan. They arrested Walid Amin Khan Shah (ph) in Malaysia. They arrested Abdul Hakim Murad, the first al Qaeda pilot, in the Philippines. But they failed to arrest Khalid Shaikh Mohammad, the mastermind of that operation.
MR. ROEMER: But specifically, Dr. Gunaratna, if the U.S. understands the Bojinka plot, that planes could be used as weapons, how then, in not only understanding that plot, not only going back and knowing that a group had attacked the World Trade Center in 1993, how do you then avert 9/11 by following this one particular individual?
MR. GUNARATNA: Sir, Mohammed Jamal Khalifa was in the Philippines and he was in touch with this group. But Khalid Shaikh Mohammed was the more important man.
MR. ROEMER: So you say you get -- eventually you get Khalid Shaikh Mohammed and that prevents 9/11 from occurring?
MR. GUNARATNA: Absolutely, because Khalid Sheik Mohammed was the mastermind of 9/11. He organized that whole operation. The first planning meeting of 9/11 was held from the 5th to the 8th of January in Kuala Lumpur. Who chaired that meeting? Khalid Shaikh Mohammed chaired that meeting. The first two hijackers to enter the United States they were present at that meeting. So the 9/11 operation is an extension of old Plan Bojinka. So the players of old plan Bojinka, they were not all arrested.
MR. ROEMER: Let me pursue that line of questioning in a minute. Let me go to Dr. Fandy for a question as well. Dr. Fandy, a former CIA agent by the name of Robert Baer, writes in the May Atlantic Monthly issue that particularly he is concerned about Saudi Arabia's support for fundamentalism and for terrorism abroad. He states in this article many things. But one of them, he claims that the Saudis have transferred 500 million to al Qaeda over the past decade. Now, do you think there is any kind of credibility to a figure like that? How would you be able to track that? And how would you measure the Saudi support with the United States for fighting terrorism prior to 9/11?
MR. FANDY: To just be absolutely honest, I just don't know this figure. I did not come across this figure. And also the idea of wire transfer or transfer funds, I can probably say throughout the Arab world people use cash and not banking systems, so it's very difficult to actually trace it, unless the origin of the money came from a Muslim country. Unless there is something that is really -- it -- the idea that it -- I haven't seen from my study of Saudi Arabia that people use checks, or even when they use bank deposits, this is not a really large group of the society. Most people get their salaries in cash. So the idea of wire transfers -- that amount of money has to originate somewhere else. It could have connection to Saudi Arabia --
MR. ROEMER: I think he insinuates, as Dr. Gunaratna did with respect to Mohammad Jamal Khalifa, that some of the money was funneled through charities and other --
MR. FANDY: That's right. I think that's the very central question for really looking at Saudi Arabia, is to look at these charities. And I talked to Saudis about this in interviews in terms of what do they think of that. And I think sometimes they come off as these are the unintended consequences of bad politics, that somehow they decided to upgrade Saudi Arabia's image in the Muslim world; therefore they tried to help the poor with schools, with other places, not knowing that the ideology as well as the manning of these organizations was hijacked by al Qaeda members. So there is -- I have no way of assessing whether this is an honest claim or a dishonest claim, but I would say that probably given what I know about Saudi Arabia that this is probably the unintended consequences of bad policy and lack of foresight and long-term planning. You see mosques and other things being supported by Saudi Arabia, even in the United States, but Saudi students use them for four years when they are here and then they are taken over by other people. So there is no follow- up for these organizations.
Well, money from Saudi Arabia goes -- went to various groups of the mujaheddin -- there was certain cultural support that this is a good thing to fight the Soviet Union; also money went to organizations that were fighting in Europe, in Bosnia to support their Muslim brothers and their co-religionists, if you will, who were embattled in Europe. Yes, a lot of money went into that. But how it is being used and who used it it's very difficult to actually say certain money was authorized by let's say officials or something of that sort. But certainly there was a sentiment in Saudi Arabia that at the time was encouraging people to support these charities.
Now, I think this is a very important issue to think about as we think about probably phase two in the war on terrorism, really sort of drying up these resources or drying up the swamps, if you will. We are looking at really educational institutions and charities. We are looking at really the software of the Muslim world, if you would. I mean, the hardware and the money and everything else can be looked at very carefully, but the software, the educations, what is in the Muslim world's head, how people are being raised and educated and other things -- this is our task. And that requires investigating very carefully educational institutions, investing very carefully charities, investigating very carefully textbooks and whatever goes into that bad software. We have to rewrite that software, if you will. And if we don't rewrite it, nobody else will rewrite it.
MR. ROEMER: So in response to Commissioner Gorelick's question about emphasizing public diplomacy, emphasizing non-government-to- government aid, emphasizing more help for the types of schools that can educate young poor children -- not in madrassas but in other ways -- that is extremely important to U.S. efforts in the future. On the same hand, some of the charitable work that supports those efforts can be diverted for terrorism, and that money can be raised in places like Saudi Arabia or, as Dr. Gunaratna talked about, in the Philippines, and diverted Abu Sayyaf.
MR. FANDY: Or United Arab Emirates and other places. The main issue for public diplomacy is that we have done a lot for the world. I think our problem is that you find schools that were built in Egypt or in Indonesia or in other places -- the people took credit for these schools, if you read the names of these schools, what they were called, these were not called American schools or came to you through the assistance of the United States. It is called Sheik So-And-So School, or this Muslim radical leader. So we are paying the money, but the branding of these schools is going to somebody else. And we are very much like the Ottoman Empire in many ways. We do not follow (what the path is ?) that we are supporting throughout the whole world what they are doing. We visit them once a year, and that's it. We don't do a follow-up. And empires, sir, should have always to have Philby and Shakespeare and Lawrence of Arabia and people who know the realm of the empire. We don't know the realm that we are claiming to have control over. We don't have the expertise, languages and other things. And all of this really has to be put in place. We have to follow up. We have to follow our money. Even our money can go to al Qaeda, believe it or not. So it is very important to just do these -- create institutions and systems of follow-ups to know where our charities are -- our own charities -- are going. Our aid sometimes goes to corrupt systems that find their way to also illegitimate use of our own money.
So in many ways unless we have -- we have to understand this big picture. There is a phase two of war on terrorism that is drying the swamps, and here are the mechanisms that are in place. I think most of us get worried about tactical small anecdotal evidence and try to draw the big picture from that. That's not a good approach to it. The whole plumbing system in the Muslim world is broken, and the Muslim world was, if you pardon the expression, was flushing in its own neighborhood for years, and we tolerated it. And now September 11th they flushed and it came to New York. Unless we fix that sink and that system and that plumbing system, it is our duty. Nobody else will fix it. People will enjoy drinking their bad water, because they have been drinking it for years.
MR. ROEMER: I appreciate your testimonies and your direct proposals to try to fix the plumbing systems with other governments, with our bilateral programs, with other governments, with our relationships with other governments, and all those governments in the Middle East should be on the table. I think the U.S., looking medium and long term should look at ways to give incentives and carrots and sticks to Egypt and Saudi Arabia to try and fix some of those problems.
Dr. Sageman, let me end with you. I know my colleagues are anxious to ask you questions. You have intimately looked at the structure of al Qaeda, and what's interesting about your testimony is you look at these pretty sophisticated individuals, fairly well educated, coming from middle class backgrounds without a lot of family, historical problems, that are themselves in Europe, in Hamburg. And they eventually come up with this plot, combined with muscle, so-called muscle on the airplanes coming over from Saudi Arabia, about 15 of the hijackers come in. They mix together in the United States, and pull off one of the most devastating attacks in our nations history, and kill over 3,000 people. It's a group of very sophisticated people coming with some other people from other backgrounds. Is al Qaeda capable of this kind of plot, pulling this kind of plot off successfully here and now today? MR. SAGEMAN: I don't think so at this point. But if we relax in the future --
MR. ROEMER: Why?
MR. SAGEMAN: Well, because are far more vigilant right now, and perhaps we might have swung the other way, where anybody who looks a little bit strange is now a guest of the FBI. But this will fade with time. People really get tired of being so vigilant. So I am not saying that in a few years from now they won't be able to do it. Right now today, no.
MR. ROEMER: In the United States?
MR. SAGEMAN: In the United States.
MR. ROEMER: But somewhere else they could. Dr. Gunaratna, do you agree with that?
MR. GUNARATNA: Sir, there are three reasons why al Qaeda has failed to mount large-scale terrorist operations in the United States since 9/11. One is heightened public vigilance. As long as the public are alert, terrorist groups cannot plan, prepare and organize a big terrorist attack. Second is that there is unprecedented security, intelligence and law enforcement cooperation in the United States and by the U.S. agencies with agencies outside the United States, including in the Asian and the Middle Eastern countries. And the third reason is that today al Qaeda has been aggressively hunted. When you hunt the terrorist organization relentlessly, that group does not have the time, space or the resources to plan, prepare and execute big operations like 9/11. So if you can maintain these three elements you will not suffer another attack of that scale.
MR. ROEMER: And that's not to preclude the smaller, less expensive types of attacks that we see on soft targets around the world?
MR. GUNARATNA: Certainly sir you will continue to witness attacks of the scale of Bali, of Mombassa, of Casablanca, of Riyadh in the next few years, because al Qaeda and its associate groups are still able to plan, prepare and execute those operations, especially in the poorer countries of the world -- of Asia, of Africa, of the Middle East, of the Caucasus.
MR. ROEMER: Thank you. Thank you, Mr. Chairman.
MR. KEAN: Senator Cleland.
MR. CLELAND: Thank you very much, Mr. Chairman. Thank you and the staff for assembling the most profound group of witnesses I've ever seen to talk about the enemy that attacked us and the rationale for that and the understanding that we need to deal with this in the future. I would say that if the government doesn't hire all of you by sunset today -- (laughter) -- they're making a big mistake.
Just a couple of one-liners here. Dr. Sageman, as liaison out of Pakistan to the mujaheddin in Pakistan and as a psychiatrist, I just want to know how long have you been feeling this way? (Laughter.) I'm just kidding.
MR. SAGEMAN: You should ask my wife. (Laughter.)
MR. CLELAND: Professor Fandy, I was fascinated with one little tidbit that you threw out, and that is -- and I just want to verify it -- that the Muslim Brotherhood has an office in Qatar, where our CENTCOM headquarters is, and in other foreign countries like Indonesia and Virginia. (Laughter.)
MR. FANDY: Virginia is not a foreign country.
MR. CLELAND: I know. Is that really true?
MR. FANDY: Well, I think -- I mean, the Muslim Brotherhood is the mother of all these movements in the final analysis. If you go and trace all the ideas and the ideology that drove these 15 hijackers to drive these planes into the World Trade Center, it is the ideas of Sayed Kutub bin Abu Ali (ph) Meldoodi (ph) and all of that that came from the Muslim Brotherhood. Yes, one of the major figures of the Muslim Brotherhood leaders is Sheikh al Qaradawi, who lives in Qatar, who is the man actually who selected who is who among the Muslim Brotherhood members who became the staff of al Jazeera station. He's a very influential figure in Qatar -- very central recruiter. He chairs also the Muslim fatwa in Sweden, believe it or not, with the Muslim Brotherhood in Sweden, creating these offices. So when there was the change of the guard last year who heads the Muslim Brotherhood after the death of their grand murshid, these men were consulted, from Lebanon to France to Sweden, to Qatar to other places. There is a Muslim Brotherhood International, if you will, that is an assembly of the men who were driven out of Egypt during Nasser and stayed -- from Saudi Arabia and other places in the world.
I stand by that statement, sir. I mean, mostly al Qaeda and all these Islamic groups, when you see their relationship with America, they are not standing next to us as number three. They are right there on our shoulders. There was a Muslim Brotherhood organization that I came across in 1992 that was in Virginia and Maryland as well. So there is an extensive network of Islamic movements across the United States that is not being studied, and it's not been studied very carefully.
One thing that I would like to emphasize here as we think of Muslims in America, some of us started to really look at Islam in the same way as Christianity is, so we look at a mosque in the same way we look at a church. That's not true. There are Muslims who go only once a week to the mosque. The mosque is not a social organization. The mosque is a place where you receive your religious guidance, but not necessarily -- the mosque is not the parallel of the church, but somehow the Islamic organizations made it clear to us that there is this sanctity of front-door mosques if you will and things of that sort. These are open for investigation, and one should look into how mosques are being built -- and where the money came from.
MR. CLELAND: Well, thank you. I want to give some thoughts about Vietnam, Afghanistan and Iraq. In listening to your conversation, I have been thinking about the quote, "Oh, what a tangled web we weave," particularly in this murky world of covert or special operations and dealing with guerrillas, suicide bombers and the like. As a Vietnam veteran, I am painfully aware that during World War II the OSS actually dropped supplies to Ho Chi Minh and his Viet men, because they were fighting our enemy at the time, Japan, and the Japanese were in formerly French Indochina. And in effect Ho Chi Minh was our guy, because he was fighting our enemy. And, matter of fact, it was Ho Chi Minh who was a big fan of Thomas Jefferson and the Declaration of Independence and could quote it extensively. As a matter of fact, about the point, about getting our word out and our message out about freedom and democracy, I was talking to one of the staffers yesterday who is an expert on the Middle East, he said, One of the best things we could do is just circulate the Declaration of Independence throughout the Middle East to the population there. And, by the way, I was thinking about Slade Gorton's question about only men could vote in Kuwait, and only a third could vote, and women couldn't vote, elected some clerics and so forth. I thought about the history of our own country -- that was 1776 and the terrorists were Thomas Jefferson, Benjamin Franklin, George Washington.
But the point being though that at one time Ho Chi Minh was our guy. After the Second World War, Roosevelt did not want to go back in and support France and French Indochina. He did not believe in the colonization of that area -- Churchill did. Ultimately we wound up supporting the French as they went back in. Ho Chi Minh and the Viet men fought the French. We ultimately supported them through about 80 percent of that war, and they lost it. We got in there, and I was pat of the 10-year American war in formerly French Indochina, and in effect fought Ho Chi Minh's North Vietnamese and VC. Now, interestingly enough, the Russians supported the Ho Chi Minh. Well, you go now to Afghanistan. There what a tangled web we weave. We are supporting the mujaheddin, because they are fighting the Russians, who are our enemy, and Afghanistan becomes their Vietnam, and we are supporting the guys that now we call the terrorists, who then we abandon as the mujaheddin, and now they turned into the people that we are now fighting -- we are calling them terrorists.
Interestingly enough, too, now in the Iraq-Iranian war, silently and tacitly we supported Saddam Hussein because of the extremists that took over Iran and captured American prisoners and so forth and so forth, and now then Saddam Hussein became the bad guy and we took him out.
Now, here's the question: In this massive world of 1.3 billion Muslims, with obviously an avant garde Osama bin Laden and his terrorist organizations and other terrorist organizations springing up -- and, Dr. Sageman, did you say in many ways Osama bin Laden and al Qaeda kind of got a jump start after the desert war in 1991?
I'd like to read to you a question -- an actual statement of Senator Chuck Hagel, Republican of Nebraska, who is on the Foreign Relations Committee, and my fellow Vietnam veteran, a statement that he made before the National Press Club June 19, 2003, because what I am trying to get at here, is you all described a milieu in which the United States functions either well or ill, particularly in this troubled part of the world, the Middle East, Senator Hagel says, "The June 2003 survey of the Pew" -- P-E-W -- "Global Attitudes Project should be an arousing alarm clock, not merely a wake-up call to all Americans regarding the perception of America in the world today."
You're talking about America not getting credit, no gratitude and so forth. The Pew project relied on public opinion surveys from 44 nations in the summer and fall of last year and further data from 21 countries in April and May of this year for a total survey sample of 54,000 people.
The survey finds a disconcerting message regarding American leadership and credibility. From the Pew poll Senator Hagel quotes, the Iraq war has widened the rift between Americans and Western Europeans, further inflamed the Muslim world, softened support for the war on terrorism, and significantly weakened global support for the pillars of the post-World War II era, the U.N. and the North Atlantic Alliance.
Isn't that the kind of news that Osama bin Laden and the radical Islamic extremists would welcome? And isn't that actually creating more problems for us, more terrorism, more potential for attacks against the West? And isn't this bad news? And is the Iraq war making it more difficult to get after the terrorists, or is it making it easier, especially since we're there with a quarter of a million troops in Kuwait and Iraq, with no end in sight and no exit strategy? Dr. Gunaratna?
MR. GUNARATNA: Sir, terrorists themselves cannot master large- scale support. They do not have the organization to do that. It is often the whole reaction of states, of state actors, that lead to the generation of large-scale support. That is why, when we fight terrorist organizations, we must ensure that there is no overreaction or there is no under-reaction, because if we do not react properly to a terrorist group, the terrorists will think we are weak and they will attack us.
That is why, after U.S.S. Cole, no effort -- at least when East Africa was attacked, you fired 70 cruise missiles. It did not have a positive impact. But after U.S.S. Cole, you did not do anything. So it is important for there to be some action. But there must not be underreaction or overreaction.
The overreaction to 9/11 was U.S. intervention in Iraq. Iraq never posed a direct and immediate threat to the United States. It was al Qaeda and the associate groups of al Qaeda that posed a direct and immediate threat to the United States. So U.S. intervention in Iraq, to get rid of one man, you invaded his country. It was, again, the failure of the intelligence community to get rid of that one man.
You do not have to risk all those troops by going into a country to get rid of one man. You said that we took him out. You're referring to Saddam Hussein. You said, "We took him out." No, sir, you have not taken him out. He is still there. He's still challenging you. As long as the core and the penultimate leadership of any government or any organization, whether in exile or not, is active, that organization will pose a threat to you.
So what we are looking at is U.S. intervention in Afghanistan was fully justified. People fully supported you. But your intervention in Iraq, you have not received that scale of support. In fact, that intervention has not earned good will toward America. It has earned some criticism and some displeasure. And the terrorist organizations will harness that displeasure and that resentment and that anger in the Muslim world, and they will grow in strength and size and they will become a greater threat to you with time.
By going into Iraq, you have not reduced the threat of terrorism to the United States in any way.
MR. CLELAND: And, in your opinion, maybe increased it?
MR. GUNARATNA: Certainly. Saddam Hussein, with finance and perhaps with access to certain special weapons, may be a greater threat today than he was in power in that country. We could have had a different attitude, a different response to him at that time, than in a day like today.
MR. CLELAND: And we have 240,000 soldiers at risk in Kuwait and Iraq now.
MR. GUNARATNA: So also we must look at the picture, the overall picture in the Middle East. Overnight, the United States has become the immediate neighbor of Iran and of Syria, and we must never forget that in 1983 Iranian-sponsored Lebanese Hizbollah attacked; conducted a coordinated, simultaneous suicide attack against the French and the American bases. You lost 241 American troops, which was the single biggest loss you suffered in such an attack prior to 9/11.
MR. CLELAND: That was Lebanon, right?
MR. GUNARATNA: Yes, Lebanon. MR. CLELAND: The Khobar Towers.
MR. GUNARATNA: No, no, sir. I am referring to the attack on the U.S. Marine barracks in Beirut.
MR. CLELAND: Yes.
MR. GUNARATNA: Hizbollah conducted a suicide attack. The point that I want to make here is that the disposition of Iran and toward Syria has not dramatically changed toward the United States. Today the United States is the immediate neighbor of Iran and Syria. You are in an area where you do not have very good friends.
MR. KEAN: We've got --
MR. CLELAND: Dr. Sageman?
MR. SAGEMAN: Very short. Basically, Senator, you've increased the pool of potential terrorists, but you still --
MR. CLELAND: Increased the pool of potential terrorists?
MR. SAGEMAN: But you still need to make the linkage for Osama bin Laden to be able to tap into it. He still needs that link. There is no direct translation from anger against the United States to being a terrorist. You still need the training. You still need the resources. And unless you have that link, you're not going to increase terrorists.
MR. CLELAND: Thank you. Professor Fandy.
MR. FANDY: I think I have the opposite view on this one. Osama bin Laden and Saddam Hussein and Ayman Zawahiri are born in the Arab and Muslim context. And after people in Iraq saw the mass graves that Saddam Hussein left, actually there is a change of opinion. What we need is the support of states to actually come out and condemn Saddam Hussein for what he did to the Iraqi people.
I think the American presence in the region is reassuring for its stability. There is no single state on its own. And we've seen in 1990, we waited for the Arab solution for the reversal of the invasion of Iraq to Kuwait; it never materialized. I think it is the responsibility of the superpower to ensure the stability of that part of the world.
I think taking out Saddam Hussein and his regime will encourage Arab states to become part of a regional arrangement for peace solutions that regulates relationship amongst all the Middle Eastern states. And also as we push within the new agenda of reform, we can regulate the relationship between governments and their own people. And with a package like this, probably we can -- (inaudible) -- if you will, for the issue of terrorism. I'm not sure that that will increase the risks. I think the biggest story during the Iraq war is that there was no -- throughout, there was an Arab country, a major country, being attacked; its leadership has been changed. I have yet to hear of one attack on a single soft target for America during that war. That was the biggest story. There was tacit support for that war in the people -- on the part of the people who were concerned.
Syria draws a lesson from this war. Iran is drawing lessons from this war. All the neighborhood are drawing lessons from this war. People know now that America is a Middle Eastern country, if you will. It has borders with Syria and whatever it is, and it can attend even Arab League meetings. So it is -- now the Middle East is our responsibility. We have to fix it. We cannot worry about -- we cannot leave -- we cannot afford to fail in the Iraq.
MR. CLELAND: Young Americans are being killed every day. And it seems like in a few weeks more Americans will have been killed after the president, in effect, declared victory than during the actual combat. And this seems to be unending. That seems to me to look more like Vietnam and Somalia than Desert I. And I just wonder if you feel -- how long is this going to go on? How many Americans are we going to lose before this thing gets cleared up?
MR. FANDY: I think there is a threshold in terms of what kind of numbers can we afford. But it is very important to get Middle Eastern states themselves to stand by us shoulder to shoulder, that indeed they support this operation. Thus far we do not have the open support, and we need to get that.
Secondly, I think we are ambiguous about Iraq like we are ambiguous about everything else. Iraqis and Middle Easterners want to hear probably from America that we own Iraq for the next three years and come back to us after three years and we'll give it to you. But right now nobody knows when will America leave this force of occupation.
So that whole ambiguous atmosphere, that's not clear; it's creating in the minds of many Iraqis that this might go for a long, long time. We need to give these people a timetable as to when we're going to put together an Iraqi government and when we are leaving.
MR. CLELAND: Well, right now the Third Infantry Division out of Fort Stewart, Georgia owns part of Iraq, and some of those are getting killed every day. It's one of my concerns.
Thank you, Mr. Chairman.
MR. KEAN: Thank you very much, Senator. We're running out of time, so I'll ask the commissioners to ask a quick question, and if you could confine your answers as concisely as possible. Senator Gorton.
MR. GORTON: One specific question. One or more of you used the phrase "failed states" in connection with at least part of the Middle East and Southeast Asia. And I suppose if there were a gold medal for failed states, it would be Somalia. And several of you have mentioned that Somalia, of course, now is a source or a base for terrorism.
What would your advice be to the United States with respect to its views toward Somalia? Should we be attempting anything there to bring democracy, justice, a reduction of a terrorist base in that most failed of all states?
MR. GUNARATNA: Sir, the United States must work with the other states in the Horn of Africa trying to bring stability in Somalia. Already al Qaeda maintains a presence in Somalia. A few months ago the CIA took a very important al Qaeda man out of Somalia. Of course, that operation was successful because the CIA was able to work with a certain faction in Somalia that cooperated with the U.S. government.
I believe that the other governments in the Horn of Africa will assist and work together with the United States to ensure that stability is restored in Somalia. It is very important to do what it takes to prevent countries from failing, because it is in such countries that terrorist organizations will base themselves. Terrorists are like sharks. They repeatedly move in search of such opportunities where there is a lack of law and order and where they can recruit, establish training camps, and continue to fight.
MR. GORTON: Any other comments? MR. FANDY: I think Somalia is paramount for the United States; from the history of the Cold War until today, strategically important. During the Cold War it was strategically important. Somalia -- (inaudible) -- and all that trade in the Red Sea. It's very important for us strategically, but also it's very important to show that indeed America cares. And we do care.
I think we cared about the Muslim world in Europe, and we have not made the case for that. It is very important to make the case that also we care in putting together another Muslim country and make it work. Otherwise I would agree with my colleague that it will be safe haven for all these terrorist organizations.
MR. SAGEMAN: Well, let me put a little spoke in those wheels. Despite being a failed state, Somalia still cooperated with the CIA in arresting that al Qaeda officer. It's not so much the failed state, because there are a lot of failed states in Africa, and they don't really seem to be all that promoting terrorism. They have their own problems; Congo, for instance, being one, or even Nigeria, but Nigeria is not a failed state.
The point is that even in failed states you can work with various factions. It's not the failed state itself. It's really the failed state that allows training bases to be there for skills and resources to develop, to develop large terrorist operation. You can very well work with the various factions in failed states to prevent that from happening. So, it's not so much a failed state itself, it's the opportunity that they allow in terms of developing those bases.
MR. GORTON: Thank you, Mr. Chairman.
MR. KEAN: Thank you, sir. Commissioner Ben-Veniste.
MR. BEN-VENISTE: Thank you, Mr. Chairman. And I would like to commend the staff for assembling a series of panel, this panel in particular, for providing us with a very stimulating discussion this morning.
I would like to like to pick up on the subject of the future of terrorism and -- which is, of course, a central issue to our mandate as a commission -- and address my question to Professor Fandy, who talked earlier about the importance of winning the peace in Iraq. And I would like you to comment on Dr. Sageman's statement that it was the U.S. force deployment in Saudi Arabia following Gulf War I that substantially stimulated the growth of al Qaeda. On the one hand, we have this set in motion by reason of the invasion of Iraq a full menu of disparate forces within that country seeking hegemony or at least a substantial say in the future of Iraq. We have the Kurds in the north, the interests of the Turks, the Shi'as in the south, the influence of Iran to be dealt with, the clerical movement that is strong and afoot, the disenfranchised and unemployed Sunnis who were formerly in power and that now don't have a paycheck, many of them from the army. All of this militates for our need to stay the course and sort all of this out.
Yet, at the same time, our mere presence in Iraq in these very substantial numbers stimulates the recruitment of jihadists, if not to al Qaeda but to other groups which may not yet be on our collective screens as we go forward.
How do we deal with this dichotomy of it being both a benefit to have removed this tyrant and yet at the same time unleashing forces in that part of the world which will, perhaps, as we have heard today, greatly stimulate the recruitment and growth of other jihadist movements?
MR. FANDY: Well, sir, the question is if we zero in on Iraq and look at the very specific data about Iraq, we know that really in Iraq we do not have a problem that's a, in Kurdistan. America does not have a problem in Kurdistan. In fact, you know, the Kurds were celebrating the U.S. independence day, and like -- I mean, there was a huge celebration --
MR. BEN-VENISTE: The Turks were not celebrating --
MR. FANDY: The Turks were not celebrating next door.
There's also a general stereotype that the Shi'a of the South are very much influenced by Iran and very much can turn the whole thing sour. In fact, the level of terrorism in the southern part of Iraq is very limited. The leader of the Shi'a, Sheikh al-Hakim, Bakqr al-Hakim, and others put out at least moderate statements about their view of the change of forces in Iraq.
The problem of Iraq is really about the Sunni center that lost its control of power over the 30 years of Saddam's rule and before. These are the people who are kicking and screaming for that change of power distribution inside Iraq. So, to really exaggerate that question and make it -- this is the question of the whole Iraq, there are a variety of attitudes in Iraq about the U.S. I would say the most recent polls that I read, it was only 20 percent were not grateful. The rest of the Iraqis saw the United States as a liberating force --
MR. BEN-VENISTE: Well, without delving too deeply because we don't have the time, would it be fair to say that without the United States military presence, we would be in the situation, or Iraq would be in a situation where it would be very likely that all of these elements would soon be at each other throats? My question goes to Dr. Sageman's observation, and perhaps Dr. Gunaratna shares this in view of his earlier comments, that this has provided a very substantial recruiting poster, if you will, given the history of recruitment post the deployment of U.S. troops in Saudi Arabia following the Gulf War for future jihadist and militant and vicious attacks on our own populations? MR. FANDY: The different -- the different poster -- the poster that people read also in the region, that the United States is here and here to change bad regimes that committed huge crimes against their own peoples. And there are also a lot of recruitment for that that's going on.
MR. BEN-VENISTE: So, there may be a win-win situation for the jihadists and the pro-American sentiments, such as -- (inaudible) --
MR. FANDY: I think the jihadists are the losers in the Iraq thing. I think it shows that the United States is capable and willing to commit its force to actually -- after September 11th, the whole strategic environment changed, that we are forceful about the deployment of our force -- we're no longer reluctant. And that is a very strong message.
MR. BEN-VENISTE: Could we have a brief comment from each of the other two?
MR. GUNARATNA: Sir, I disagree. I believe that Iraq has the potential to become the new theater for jihadists, to psychologically and physically for them to train and to conduct operations against the United States, its allies and its friends. And I believe that the flow of foreign fighters into Iraq -- Syrian and Iran has not done much, and I believe that these fighters are now coming mostly from North Africa, from the Middle East, and with time there will be people who will come from Asia, from Europe, the cradle and the convert Muslims from the Caucuses. And unless the United States takes decisive to stem, to control the flow of these foreign fighters and also to stabilize the situation in Iraq, Iraq will become a very important, a very significant theater for these jihadists.
MR. BEN-VENISTE: Do you prescribe more force?
MR. GUNARATNA: More force, and also more opportunity.
MR. BEN-VENISTE: Smarter force?
MR. GUNARATNA: And also more diplomacy. More diplomacy. You have to target and destroy Saddam Hussein and his key people who are inside that country. You have to deal with Iran and Syrian in such a way, where the flow of these foreign fighters will be blocked. If you do not do that, you will continue to have more U.S. troops dying in Iraq every day, and the number will increase.
MR. BEN-VENISTE: Dr. Sageman, do you agree?
MR. SAGEMAN: No. Actually, I sit on the fence. Before you can have almost offered me a job here; now you can offer me Paul Bremer's job. Thank you. I think the two scenarios are plausible. And Iraq is both a threat and a promise. And that really very much depends on what Paul Bremer is going to do. They're very likely, both of them. And at this point it's two early to tell which one will unfold. MR. BEN-VENISTE: Thank you.
MR. KEAN: I know there are four other commissioners who have questions, but we're 25 minutes over the panel, so we've got to say at this point, I apologize to the commissioners, their questions, and say thank you all very, very much, and we appreciate very much your appearance.
MR. KEAN: Okay, if we could call the hearing back to order. Yeah, I've got a gavel. I'll use the gavel. (Gavels.)
As we all know, the United States has designated a number of states, including Iraq, Iran and Syria, as state sponsors of terrorism. The difficulties in assessing the attitudes and policies of these states toward al Qaeda are the tasks of our next panel. Addressing these very complex subjects will be two noted experts on Saddam Hussein's Iraq: Dr. Laurie Mylroie, author of "Study of Revenge: Saddam Hussein's Unfinished War Against America," and Dr. Judith Yaphe, Middle East Project Director at the Institution for National Strategic Studies of the National Defense University. Dr. Murhaf Jouejati, scholar-in-residence at the Middle East Institute, will consider Syria. Mark -- make sure I get this right -- Gasiorowski --
MR. GASIOROWSKI: Yes.
MR. KEAN: -- professor of political science at Louisiana State University will tackle the equally complex job of assessing Iranian attitudes toward al Qaeda. Ms. Mylroie.
MS. MYLROIE: Thank you very much for the invitation to address you this morning.
A major policy and intelligence failure occurred in the 1990s, namely the emergence of a serious misunderstanding about the nature of major terrorist attacks on the United States. Prior to the 1993 bombing of the World Trade Center, it was assumed that all major attacks against the United States were state-sponsored. The Trade Center bombing is said to mark the start of a new kind of terrorism that does not involve states, and that is simply not true.
And what I'm going to say to you is going to be different than you heard earlier this morning, and that's because the information on which I am basing these evaluations is the evidence from the trials rather than the intelligence. And because terrorism throughout the '90s was treated as a law enforcement issue, that evidence, I would suggest, is more important, more relevant, and more reliable in understanding the terrorist threat.
I'll speak briefly about three plots: the '93 Trade Center bombing, the '95 plot to bomb a dozen U.S. airplanes in the Philippines, and 9/11. My focus will be on the masterminds -- individuals like Ramzi Yousef and Khalid Sheikh Mohammad. My point will be: we do not know who these people are. Their identities are all based on documents in Kuwait that pre-date its liberation in 1991, and those documents are not reliable because Iraqi intelligence was there for seven months. Indeed, there is substantial reason to believe that these masterminds are Iraqi intelligence agents.
Now, the '93 bombing of the Trade Center is supposed to be the start of a new, stateless terrorism. But New York FBI, the lead investigative agency, its director, Jim Fox, believed that Iraq was behind the bomb. Why? It was huge. It was meant to topple one tower on to the other, and it left a crater six stories deep in the basement floors. Fox's background was counter-intelligence, and he believed that the individuals he was arresting immediately after the bombing, like the 26-year-old Palestinian Mohammad Salama, who was detained as he returned to the Ryder rental agency for his deposit on the van that carried the bomb. These individuals alone could not have carried out such an attack. There were also Iraqis all around the fringe of the plot. One of them, Abdul Rahman Yasin, came from Baghdad before the bombing, returned afterwards. He's still an indicted fugitive. Also, see Salama's many phone calls to Iraq at a crucial early stage of the plot, which are part of my testimony. That's government exhibit 824, a page from Salama's phone bill, evidence from his trial.
But the key point is the identity of the mastermind, Ramzi Yousef, without whom that bomb could not have been built. He entered the United States on an Iraqi passport in the name of Ramzi Yousef, and fled the night of the Trade Center bombing on a Pakistani passport in the name of Abdel Basit Karim. There really was an individual Abdel Basit Karim, born and raised in Kuwait. He graduated high school, then went to study in Britain, got his degree in June of '89, and returned to Kuwait. And apparently he was still there a year later when Iraq invaded. Yousef obtained the passport on which he fled New York by going to the Pakistani consulate with Xerox copies of the 1984 and 1988 passports of Abdel Basit Karim saying he was Karim, he had lost his passport, and he needed a new one to get home. The consulate didn't like the documentation, but nonetheless gave him a temporary passport, and that's the passport on which Yousef fled. The copies of Karim's passport that Yousef presented to the consulate were also evidence in the trial. If you look at government exhibits 739 C and B, you'll see the first two pages of those passports. You can look at the signatures, and you'll see that they're radically different.
Also, a Pakistani address has spaces for a permanent address in Pakistan and a present address in Pakistan. The present address in those passports is blank because the family lived in Kuwait. But the permanent address has changed. The permanent address is, in a Pakistani passport, the family's place of origin. By definition, it doesn't change. But in the 1984 passport, it says Karachi; the '88 passport, Baluchistan. The signature is different. The permanent addresses are different. Those documents went through a scanner.
And similar problem exists with Karim's file in Kuwait. As a routine matter, Kuwait's interior ministry maintained a resident alien file on Karim. Information was taken out. There should have been front -- Xerox copies of the front pages of passports with the signature, the picture, et cetera. The Kuwaitis recognized that that was missing because of Iraq's occupation. What they didn't realize was that the whole file was corrupted. Information was added. There was a notation that Abdul Basit Karim and his family left Kuwait on August 26th, 1990, traveling from Kuwait to Iraq, crossing to Iran at Salancha on the way to Pakistani Baluchistan where they live now. But no one gives his whole itinerary when he crosses a border. That information doesn't belong in the file. Moreover, on that day, there was an Iraqi army of occupation -- no Kuwaiti government. The Iraqis put that information into Abdul Basit Karim's file.
Finally, Yousef's fingerprints are in that file. But everyone's fingerprints are unique, so that can mean only one of two things: Yousef's real identity is Abdul Basit Karim, or someone switched the fingerprint cards.
I met with Karim's teachers in Britain for a whole variety of reasons, including that Yousef is tall and Abdul Basit Karim was medium to short -- two different heights. Karim's teachers believe, as do I, that their student is not the bomber, that the student died in Kuwait, and that Ramzi Yousef assumed his identity.
And if Yousef is not Karim, that means a file in Kuwait was tampered with, including switching the fingerprint cards for the evident purpose of creating a false identity for a terrorist.
You're all aware of the practices of Soviet-style intelligence agencies. Agents not attached to an embassy are called illegals, and it's standard practice to develop false identities or legends for illegals. Reasonably, only Iraq could have tampered with Karim's file in Kuwait, including switching the fingerprint cards, while it occupied Kuwait. Iraqi intelligence created a legend for an illegal, and that's the significance of Karim's file.
Now, in '95, Yousef was involved in a plot to bomb a dozen U.S. airplanes in the Philippines. Arrested with him was an individual known as Abdul Hakim Murad. Murad is supposed to be Yousef's childhood friend from Kuwait. And, like Yousef, Murad is also Baluch. Khalid Sheik Mohammed was indicted for that plot, too. Mohammed escaped and went on to head al Qaeda's military committee after al Qaeda moved to Afghanistan, and he masterminded the 9/11 attacks. Mohammed is supposed to be Yousef's maternal uncle, but his identity like that of Yousef and Murad is based on what he himself has told other people, and documents in Kuwait that predate Kuwait's liberation from Iraq. Neither are reliable. We don't necessarily know who Mohammad is.
Now, U.S. authorities understand the three other, quote, "relatives" of Yousef -- two older brothers and a younger cousin -- there is a chart on the back of my written statement -- they are also key al Qaeda figures. The brothers, and perhaps the cousin, were also born and raised in Kuwait and their identities, too, rest on Kuwaiti documents. Notably, these people are all Baluch, Sunni Muslim people living in eastern Iran and western Pakistan. Iraqi intelligence has long-standing ties with the Baluch. It used them against Iran.
Prior to the Trade Center bombing, no Baluch was involved in terrorism against the United States. Yes, there's nothing to do with them. And no Baluch organization is on the State Department's terrorism list. Why should Baluch attach the United States, except for the link to Iraqi intelligence?
It's essentially the claim now of U.S. authorities that the core of the murderous terrorist attacks from the Trade Center bombing to 9/11, at that core is a particularly talented and murderous Baluch family. Yousef, his friends, his uncle, two brothers, and a cousin. Yet there is another explanation. This is not a family. Rather they are Baluch illegals given legends by Iraqi intelligence on the basis of documents in Kuwait.
Recently I asked an Israeli retired from the number two position in military intelligence which made more sense: "Is this a murderous family or illegals with legends?" He replied: "It's obvious. It's obvious that these are illegals with legends."
There's a major lapse in the investigation to take these identities at face value. That question must be pursued, and there are suggestions about doing that in my written statement. The odds are high that these people are not whom they claim to be, and demonstrating that would constitute a clear link between Iraq and the 9/11 attack, as reasonably only Iraq could have created these legends while it occupied Kuwait. That would also demonstrate that there is no new kind of terrorism that does not involve states. This terrorism was part of a war that did not end with the 1991 cease-fire, but continues to this day. Thank you.
MR. KEAN: Dr. Yaphe.
MS. YAPHE: Thank you very much inviting me. I want to thank the committee very much for inviting me to testify. And for purposes of full disclosure -- you may know this already, but let me state it for the record -- I worked for more than 20 years for the Central Intelligence Agency as a senior analyst on Iraq, Iran, the Persian Gulf. I continue to follow this in my career now, where I am at National Defense University. The comments and analysis that I am offering are my own. They don't represent the Agency, they don't represent the Department of Defense, or the University. And I say that for pretty obvious reasons.
My testimony focuses on the role and actions of Iraq as a state sponsor of terrorism under the control of Saddam Hussein. Iraq under Saddam was a major state sponsor of international terrorism. They almost wrote the book, and I've read the books that have been written. Iraq under Saddam was an active sponsor of terrorist groups, providing safe haven, training, arms, logistical support -- requiring in exchange that the groups carry out operations ordered by Baghdad for Saddam's objectives. Terrorist groups were not permitted to have offices, recruitment, or training facilities, or freely use Iraqi territory under the regime's control without explicit permission from Saddam. To mix a metaphor, if you took Iraq's shilling, you did Iraq's bidding -- or Saddam's bidding, more directly.
Saddam used foreign terrorist groups and terrorism as instruments of foreign policy. Groups hosted by Saddam were denied protection. If he wanted to improve relations with a neighboring country and encourage to attack the same countries when Saddam wanted to pressure them. If they refused Saddam's requests, they were exiled. Now, conventional wisdom casts Saddam as a terrorist, a primary consumer of the terrorist tactics and methods, and an enemy of the United States. And that is all true. Conventional wisdom describes Iraq under Saddam as a primary state sponsor of international terrorism, and that is all true. If the mathematics is correct, then the conventional conclusion must be that Saddam and Iraq are responsible for acts of terrorism against the United States, going back to the 1993 Trade Towers attack to perhaps 9/11.
Furthermore, this argument would say Saddam and al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden cooperated in planning and conducting operations on U.S. targets. These assessments are incorrect in my personal view and in my professional judgment as a scholar and intelligence officer on Iraq.
Simply put, Saddam Hussein supported extremist groups that would respond to his orders and work against his enemy. This unfortunately does not make him the primary suspect or the eminence gris for al Qaeda's attacks on the United States.
Now, there are a couple of truths to keep in mind. He used terrorism to intimidate Iraqis at home and abroad, and he did that, as we all know, very well. We know by the way we have an unsolved murder in McLean of an Iraqi businessman. That was almost certainly an act of an Iraqi intelligence officer, and a very good one. Now, could there have been an al Qaeda connection? Oh, let me before I do that let me -- some other truths. The reasons to do that, to support Iraq's revolutionary credentials and ensure his own role as a great Arab leader, intimidate rival leaders and governments, he gave safe haven and training to a wide range of groups, the Abu Nidal group, the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine, the Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine, a Hawari group. He created the Arab Liberation Front as a personal surrogate in the war, which he used recently to pledge $25,000 to every martyr in the intifada against Israel.
Abu Nidal is one of the primary evidences. He urged Abu Nidal to attack Hafez al Assad, his primary rival for Arab leadership and Ba'athist leadership. He also encouraged attacks -- we've heard a lot about the Muslim Brotherhood this morning -- they were also a group he liked. He used the Syrian faction, but only against Syria. Other than that, Saddam was not interested in religious-based Islamic extremists, because he knew he was their next target after they finished their primar